underestimating the public

You can clearly see that South Korea is an outlier (as already shown in my newsletter “Better safe than sorry” and that the severity of this outbreak will depend on the behaviours of the governed and the decisive action of our respective governments). We are at war with COVID19. Progress is man's ability to complicate simplicity. The “airborne” properties of COVID19 have important implication on how best to combat its transmission. The alternative interpretation assumes that the underestimate is a deliberate strategy, and the original quote does seem to be implying that to underestimate the intelligence of the public is to err on the side of caution, without necessarily carrying the implication that the public are a bunch of braindead schlubs (although the original source seems to carry that … It is a clear war of necessity against COVID19 and governments will have to deal with a different type of public that they are accustomed to. We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. (Link), This is a great COVID19 Dashboard prepared by Andrzej Leszkiewicz. Social platforms while still spreading misinformation will play a much more beneficial role to the public during this crisis. "Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income, and Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol 31(2), pages 145 … Whilst we were not particularly expecting Boris Johnson to shine on the science side, as a popular biographer of Churchill, we were at least expecting him to heed the lessons from his idol. This site uses cookies. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate, ⚔️ “Toilet paper and total war - the psychology of shortages and what it means for resilience” by David Beaumont (who runs a blog on war logistics) is a fascinating read. In a damning passage, Boff writes. Ministers are underestimating the public by refusing to discuss exit strategies for ending the coronavirus lockdown, senior Tory MPs have warned. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public. It knows no borders. Three out of four human coronaviruses that cause colds and other respiratory diseases have “marked winter seasonality” according to molecular biologist Kate Templeton, at the University of Edinburgh. This blog is great but would be better without your obvious political bias. Here are two versions: (1) No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public. She's ninety-seven now, and we don't know where the hell she is. This is a ❗️MUST WATCH❗️to understand fully what is upon us but also how early behavioural changes at scale can have a massive impact on the level of exponential growth of COVID19 (Link). It demonstrates in his mind how critical human behaviour will need consideration in building preparedness and strategic resilience against COVID19 (Link), Trevor Bedford, genetic epidemiologist who I have featured many times before writes another interesting thread attempting to estimate the real number of cases of COVID19 in the US, particularly given the early misfiring of the country on its testing ability. I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member. February 08, 2021 ... Mark Pandori, director of the state public health … This is an emerging field ad more funding and research will be need. Every day counts for them as well. The UK has already made a U-turn in its communication on herd immunity in light of the upheaval not only from the scientific community (including from members of SAGE - its own scientific advisory group) but also from the public. Perfection is the enemy of the good. And although, science has a critical role to play in guiding the right policy response it is not the only one which will make us succeed globally. And while many cities are tracking their carbon footprint in an attempt to cut back, new research suggests that some are underestimating their emissions by as much as 145%. Here is an article with the Best and Worst of all dashboard in the world, with Pros and Con prepared by Neel V. Patel for MIT Technology (Article), This is the New York Times data and graph page on COVID19 with an update map of the US alone (Link), A great short video from Adam Kucharski from TED: “For more information about how you can protect yourself and loved ones from the spread of COVID-19” (Link), An interview from WGBH News with leading journalists on COVID19 for Science and STAT, on disinformation and what is key to report on: “Frustrations of a Science Reporter Covering Coronavirus”. They are maybe too conscious of the distrust they elicit, or underestimate the pubic or both. I have written a lot about herd immunity and the need for a democratic debate on UK government’s COVID19 policy particularly if the chosen one was an outlier. Dear Quote Investigator: A sardonic comment about the general public has been credited to the famous journalist curmudgeon H. L. Mencken. Unfortunately most of the research is still in pre-print (not peer review) and it is therefore better to err on the side of caution. Beaumont makes a parallel between the looting of toilet paper around the world and war logistics in general. The public, the private sectors, philanthropists, cities and state have already been more creative and quick to respond to the crisis and build resilience for us all. Adam Kucharski (Mathematician/epidemiologist at @LSHTM and part of SAGE) wrote a twitter thread yesterday morning: I am deeply uncomfortable with the message that UK is actively pursuing ‘herd immunity’ as the main COVID-19 strategy. It is a foreign or maybe frightening concept for a populist government and its spin doctors. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public. They also underestimated how the distrust which led them to power would be the sword that seal their fate. Governments in the West now doubt that freedom and security can co-exist, when history shows us otherwise and democracy demands it. Why the US Is Underestimating COVID Reinfection. They established a government propaganda commission, called the Creel Commission, which succeeded, within six months, in turning a pacifist population into a hysterical, war-mongering population which wanted to destroy everything German, tear the Germans limb from limb, go to war and save the world. underestimating phrase. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby. “Psychological Effects of Quarantine: A Qualitative “Rapid Review” is an important read (Link), NEW❗️A helpful guide by VOX of the “9 coronavirus pandemic charts everyone should see” (Link), Data and chart regularly updated by the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Do not take life too seriously. The top of government have a key role to play. (2) Nobody ever lost money underestimating the taste of the American people. Believing otherwise would acknowledge the reason and the solidarity which the public is capable of. The policy to combat a virus, as I have written before, needs to be guided by science but is ultimately a political decision. It is a different foe. Likely a nearly verbatim paraphrase of: "No one in this world, so far as I know ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people." We report three major and confronting environmental issues that have received little attention and require urgent action. Speed trumps perfection.”, Article of the day❗️: Jonathan Boff, Senior Lecturer in the Department of History at the University of Birmingham, writes: “Crisis Management for Beginners: Lessons from two World Wars”. Robert Peston, a friendly Downing Street journalist then published an article “Elderly could be quarantined for four months in 'wartime-style' mobilisation to combat coronavirus”, and finally in the evening Matt Hancock, UK Health Secretary, buried herd immunity as a policy goal. What Mencken (1880-1956) did write, in the Sept. 19, 1926 edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune, was: “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. changing with seasons). Only the mediocre are always at their best. I particularly like the country comparison tab, which allows you to track and benchmark the curve of the epidemic (number of cases and deaths) in your country with that of another. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people; Unsourced 2 . Behind every great man is a woman rolling her eyes. A very good article in WIRED (Link), Biocentury published a very good infographic and article on the 30 different therapeutics currently in different stages of trial to fight COVID19. It is a very extensive dashboard with 28 pages. You want to get it below 1 as fast as possible to contain an epidemic. It will be as ruthless as the virus. What does underestimating expression mean? The Government has set out what needs to … It might be expected, but will ultimately be their downfall unless they become responsible governments. Definitions by the largest Idiom Dictionary. It is a last resort for many but in recent times some “wars” have been perceived by many to also be of choice. Peacekeepers and Traumatic Stress. "nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public" Another attributed to P T Barnum goes: (snip) You can go nuts trying to determine the authorship or wording of quotations from random Web pages. - H. L. Mencken Quotations from famous celebrities, politicians, authors, athletes and other prominent people. Yes. Click the link we sent to , or click here to log in. Herd immunity is not a part of it. Another interesting field of research is on whether the human immune might also have a circadian cycle (i.e. (Link), Mental health and resilience are critical factors as noted above with devising and implementing policies for everyone and in particular for health workers in time of a pandemic. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult to … (Link), Exponential growth and epidemics (permanent video), This is an excellent video explaining “exponential growth” and epidemics. Video of the day: In this video, Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme, make a number of key points on the need to “engage with communities deeply” and the need for “cooperation”, but the most important in containing an outbreak is speed: “If you need to be right before you move you will never win. I am a Democrat. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public. I always wanted to be somebody, but now I realize I should have been more specific. The more populist ones are doubting the resilience of the public and the length of time it could endure a quarantine. Bedford current best estimates is that between 10,000-40,000 Americans have been infected by COVID19 compared to the 3,045 officially reported cases. The source says: Over time, this longer quote came to be paraphrased and misquoted, most commonly in the form “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” The specific link is to Mencken  BrainyQuote has been providing inspirational quotes since 2001 to our worldwide community. Widely attributed to American author and social critic H. L. Mencken(1880–1956) but not found exactly verbatim in his published works, so the source and original form of this expression are not known with absolute certainty. I have testified before the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin on the evaluation of the need for the Cardinal-Hickory Creek transmission line (PSC Ref #: 369775 and PSC Ref#: 369221) in 5-CE-146. No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the american people definition at Dictionary.com, a free online dictionary with pronunciation, synonyms and translation. The Wilson administration was actually committed to war and had to do something about it. JoNel Aleccia. per w:P. T. Barnum This time is different because they have underestimated two characteristics of the public in 2020: their intelligence and resilience. Unlike traditional wars, we do not have a choice: COVID19 is here and we need to fight it. They have made great use of social media and ‘strategic communication’ (the pompous word for PR when applied to government) to gain power. I am a marvelous housekeeper. It is now urgent and key that governments believe in the public to refine and adapt their policy towards COVID19. So overall, it’s Emmanuel Macron and Leo Varadkar who are taking a Churchillian line, while Boris Johnson, meanwhile, may ironically end up looking more like Asquith or Chamberlain. It's mostly transplants here in NoVa who expect and need new highways, public transit, new schools with fancy equipment etc. A number of governments have been rather slow to respond and even more to mobilise the public against this foe. Stop underestimating the public. The Committee on Public Information (1917–1919), also known as The Creel Commission was set up in the US by President Wilson who wanted to gain support from America to go into war. But researchers at NWEA, whose MAP Growth assessments are meant to measure student proficiency, caution they may be underestimating the effects on minority and economically disadvantaged groups. One of the reason, they might be so behind the curve, is because they are still emboldened and maybe still bewildered by how they were able to arrive to power. The public, the private sectors, philanthropists, cities and state have already been more creative and quick to respond to the crisis and build resilience for us all. I am not a member of any organized political party. U.S. cities are underestimating their carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 18%, according to a study released on Tuesday, potentially hindering their efforts to … It's about the least rewarding use of the Web I … Age is something that doesn't matter, unless you are a cheese. The spectre of death will change the public level of scrutiny of policies and its acceptance of misinformation. Active cases: 77,752 (+9,787) (this is the number of currently infected patients), Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, Case curves (update coming later once ECDC releases new data). The more populist governments around the world have been the ones who have until now had both the worst communication and the worst policies on COVID19 (including no policy). But this time is different, they are dealing with policy choices which will determine how many of their people die. ( Link), In a very good Medium blog, Andreas Backhaus, tries to explain why the fatality rate in Italy is so much higher than in other countries and what could play a role in this difference looking at scale of testing and different age make-up of the respective population. This is changing fast as both France and Spain have tightened their lockdowns yesterday, and undoubtedly more will follow. "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." “The best kind of charity is to help those who are willing to help themselves.” ― P. T. Barnum. Martin Feldstein, 2017. Every time I leave a man I keep his house. It's like NY state expectations up here, Tennessee expectations down there. History and war-like logistics will be equally important. Despite state … There's a sucker born every minute or There's a client born every minute w:There's a sucker born every minute; we've got something for everyone w:Forer effect [his personal aims were] to put money in his own coffers. The scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms—including humanity—is in fact so great that it is difficult […] We are at war with COVID19. Laugh and the world laughs with you, snore and you sleep alone. It was followed later on by a rebuttal from a World Health Organisation official, normally careful about openly criticising a government given its focus on increasing cooperation during outbreaks, and an open letter from leading scientists urging the government to “take stronger measures of social distancing across the UK with immediate effect”. The two World Wars have shown a very different picture of resilience, solidarity and adaptability. Very well done and informative. Please, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. (Link), Another timely and important read is attempting to clarify the confusion about “airborne” given the different meaning which scientist ascribe to the word. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. When the mob of ardent Donald Trump supporters, QAnon conspiracy theory followers, and far-right extremists stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, there was no denying the shock value of their acts. Ultimately, both sides would probably be happier if they weren't part of the same state. Find inspirational and motivational through this quote on a beautiful fridge magnet. Tag: Underestimating The Danger of Underinsuring or Underestimating Your Property Policy By: Joseph C. Smith, CIC, CPIA, CBIA Georgetown Insurance Service, Inc. Frederick, MD Honesty, transparency, and thoroughness are three important qualities that every business owner should look for in their insurance agent. (Link to see charts and more data about your country), This is a GitHub made by my friend Francois Lagunas (co-founder and CTO extraordinaire of Stupeflix, a company we backed). First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. A very informative read on comparing what is comparable and not making hasty global inference on the intrinsic CFR of COVID19 based on widely disparate country samples (Link), A timely and important read of Jon Cohen at Science looking at whether it is reasonable to expect COVID19 to wane with the coming summer months and looking at a dozen other diseases. He wrote: We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. To find out more, read our, This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. He has taken a time offset for countries assuming that South Korea and Italy are 36 days behind China’s outbreak, and France and the USA a further 9 days behind. He has written a script to scrape deaths and number of cases in order to visualise the rate of growth on a logarithmic scale. The Government has … Elisa E. Bolton, PhD US peacekeepers are military personnel, typically trained as combatants, who serve in missions in which they are charged with maintaining cease-fires, implementing peace settlements, or assisting in humanitarian operations (e.g., in Bosnia, Somalia, Lebanon). A war is always a political choice. all assets included in the IRP, and these estimates are likely underestimating its true cost. We will have to wait for a definite answer. (CBS News) CLIMATE: An opinion poll of Western voters finds that many are increasingly worried about the impacts of climate change, and people of color in particular … US May Be Underestimating COVID-19 Reinfection You can get reinfected with COVID-19, but because the U.S. is lagging in the field of genetic sequencing, we have little data how frequently this occurs. We are in time of war. Published Versions. Underestimating Trump The error in national polling is the reason some believe the 2020 misses are more serious than four years ago. SARS and MERS (two other coronaviruses) “offer no clues”. The US increased spending on public health and emergency preparedness after the 9/11 and anthrax attacks in 2001, but that funding has declined sharply over the years. The G7 will gather tomorrow for increased cooperation as well. Boff argues that controlling COVID19 will not all be about science and looks to draw lessons from two World Wars to inform policy. (Link), Singapore remains the gold standard of dashboard. Although we are all familiar with the phrase, its authors rightly says that “yet human intuition has a hard time recognising what it means”. Taison Bell, an assistant professor with the University of Virginia’s Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, said the state’s figures are likely underestimating … Definition of underestimating in the Idioms Dictionary. It is now urgent and key that governments believe in the public to refine and adapt their policy towards COVID19. “No one ever went broke underestimating the willingness of the public to bump uglies in unlikely combinations.” The Editors of The Guardian newspaper In a short news story about the 3nder online app, which connects people who want arrange “threesome” sexual encounters with other people. As Chomsky writes in “Media Control: the Spectacular achievements of propaganda”: The population was extremely pacifistic and saw no reason to become involved in a European war. Andrzej has also written an introductory and explanatory blog for it (“Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) fatality rate: WHO and media vs logic and mathematics”). Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public. If I had to live my life again, I'd make the same mistakes, only sooner. It maps the effective reproduction number (also known as R0) of COVID19. First, we review the evidence that future environmental conditions will be far more dangerous than currently believed. EMISSIONS: A number of Western cities are among those across the U.S. underestimating greenhouse gas emissions according to a new study, with Torrance, California topping the list. Since the beginning of the crisis we have heard that the West could not do what the Chinese have done in containing the crisis, even though as I have argued yesterday a lot of the good measures had no authoritarianism in them. My grandmother started walking five miles a day when she was sixty. Every nine seconds, a woman is assaulted or beaten in the U.S. Watch: DC's Giant Pandas enjoy snow storm, sliding down hills at National Zoo exhibit Stop underestimating the public. This will infect the populist politicians before COVID19 infects the public. You will never get out of it alive. Ministers are underestimating the public by refusing to discuss exit strategies for ending the coronavirus lockdown, senior Tory MPs have warned. A day without sunshine is like, you know, night. For your security, we need to re-authenticate you. Look it …

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